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The Red Schiphol Campaign has commissioned research by the independent Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) to assess the economic impact of reducing the number of flight movements at Schiphol Airport to 440,000. 

This research is vital given the lack of publicly available government information about what effect the 440 decision will have on jobs or the broader Dutch economy. 


CEBR's expert findings show that the 440 decision is associated with a €13.6 billion hit to the Dutch economy through trade and tourism expenditure. It is also likely to have a significant impact on ticket prices, making it harder for Dutch families to go on holiday. 

Since this research was published, the government has introduced an interim cap of 452,500 flights for the winter 2024 - 2025 season. This would still be a disastrous measure. Meanwhile, the threat of a 440,000 cap remains very real. 


  • The 440 decision will be associated with an estimated 180,000 tonne drop in cargo handled through Schiphol Airport, compared to 2019 levels. This represents €11.5 billion worth of goods.

  • The flight cap could result in 1.3 million fewer tourists entering the country via Schiphol Airport each year. This drop in tourism is associated with €2.2 billion less in tourist expenditure per year. 

  • Taken together, the 440 decision could result in a reduction in the value of trade and tourist expenditure in the Netherlands by €13.6 billion.

  • Constrained flight capacity at other hub airports has been associated with a 17% premium on short-haul fares and 25% premium on long-haul fares.

  • The direct impact on Schiphol Airport and its supply-chain could result in a €205 million reduction in Gross Value Added (GVA) and 599 fewer jobs in the near future. 

  • 94% of the impact on GVA and employment will be felt in the Nord-Holland region, including 562 fewer jobs supported in the region. 


  • Schiphol airport directly employs over 2,000 people and supports thousands of jobs in the wider Dutch economy. 

  • Schiphol is responsible for 88% of passengers flying into or out of the Netherlands and 90% of cargo.

  • In 2021, Schiphol was the third-busiest airport in the world by international passenger traffic.

  • In 2019, Schiphol connected almost 72 million passengers to their destinations. 

  • Prior to the pandemic, the the aviation industry contributed €22 billion to the Dutch economy. 

  • In 2019, IATA predicted that if the Dutch airport was weakened, it could cost 84,000 jobs in the future. 

  • Aviation accounts for just 1.9% of global emissions worldwide. By contrast, road transport is responsible for 11.9%.

  • According to a poll by De Telegraaf, two thirds of Dutch people are opposed to Schiphol shrinking.

  • Research by SEO predicts that plans to shrink Schiphol will result in 13,000 people losing their jobs.

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